First, let's start with the Median House Prices
The median price is a useful statistic and is commonly used by the national market giants like Case-Schiller and others, as it shows the point at which half of the homes that sold in the time period are above and half of the homes are below.
As you can see on the chart the median for the year ending December 31, 2007 was $31,750 higher than we are seeing today.
Taking the difference between then and now you get a drop of 5.15% from last year, not great, but not catastrophic.
Now, let's go into more depth on the Sudbury market.
There are three distinct segments to this market: entry-level; mid-range; and luxury, and as might be expected, they've all behaved very differently this year.
Buyers and sellers of real estate in the Sudbury market need to look at four charts to truly understand what's happening for each of the price segments, noting that the figures shown are averages for the month.
- First, you need to see the number of units sold in each month that will give you an idea of the actual activity that is taking place.
- Next, you need to look at the monthly average price which will tell you the general part of the market that is moving off the shelves.
- Next, you need to look at the list to sales ratio which will give you the point at which sellers agree to sell and buyers agree to buy.
- And last, you need to look at the days on market, which will give you a general idea of the time it takes to sell one of these homes in today's market.
To Begin With,
let's look at the ENTRY LEVEL MARKET in Sudbury this year so far.
Monthly units sold: activity seems to have bottomed-out in early summer and is in a general recovery.
List to sales ratio: sellers and their agents needed most of the year to understand (and believe) that the market has changed and the prices have dropped. Once they figured that out, around May, the ratios climbed to just about their historical averages.
Monthly average price: As the number of units goes up, the prices go down - again the buyers, sellers and their agents seem to be getting the message.
Days on market: the time it takes to sell in this price point should not be this high, and reminds us all that a home is not a liquid investment.
Next, let's look at the MIDDLE LEVEL MARKET in Sudbury this year so far.
Monthly units sold: there is very little activity, and what activity there is seems to have bottomed-out in early summer and is in a general recovery, and although it may be too early to call, August figures may be predicting another slide.
List to sales ratio: sellers and their agents in this price range are still in denial that the market has dropped and this is evident in this chart.
Monthly average price: the few homes that are selling are in a very narrow range, which suggests that the traditional move-up buyers are having trouble selling their starter homes, and some of the buyers in this price point may well be first-time home buyers.
Days on market: the trend is generally upward, which is not encouraging if you're a seller, but great if you're a buyer with no house to sell.
And last, let's look at the LUXURY MARKET in Sudbury this year so far.
Monthly units sold: there is very little activity, and what activity there is seems to have spiked into a general recovery in June (it may be spurred by needing to get into a home before school starts), and although it's tough to predict the future on a three-month trend, August figures are looking like a steady downward slide.
List to sales ratio: luxury homes are very difficult to price, as once you get up to a certain square footage in size, the real differences in price are directly related to the level of detail, fit and finishes, updating, and desired amenities. This chart shows that buyers and sellers have very different ideas of what adds value, an age-old dilemma.
Monthly average price: the few homes that are selling are tending to be in the upper end of the range which sort of reflects the consolidation of wealth in our current economy. As a side note, there does not appear to be a market for properties above $2 million in Sudbury at this time.
Days on market: the trend is generally downward, which is very encouraging, but may be more a function of sellers who would like to sell but are waiting on the sidelines for a while for the market to recover.
To Summarize, All Real Estate Markets are LOCAL!
Just as the national statistics you hear on the news can't tell you how your local market is doing, buying or selling in different price points within a town can be a different experience. I hope the information I've presented here has increased your awareness of the inability to generalize even within a local market, and helped you to be a more informed consumer!
Mike Hunter, the House Hunter
Your Neighborhood Realtor for Sudbury and Metrowest Boston.
if I can be of help to you in buying or selling a home in Sudbury give me a call at 978-580-1069.
Coldwell Banker Residential Brokerage
447 Boston Post Rd, Sudbury, MA 01776
Tel: 978.580.1069
Blog: http://househunter3.blogspot.com
Email: Mike.Hunter@NEMoves.com
Web: www.HunterTheHouseHunter.com
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